The line comes from Team Fortress 2, Valve's class based shooter released in 2007, where the Heavy is the large Russian mercenary known for his minigun and blunt speech. Voiced as one of his kill responses, you are dead, not big surprise became a favourite clip among players because it sums up his personality in a few words. It later spread beyond matches into edits, streams and soundboards, where the short clip is reused whenever an outcome feels inevitable rather than shocking.
About this sound
Heavy from Team Fortress 2 dryly says you are dead, not big surprise after a kill. Creators use this short voice line for failed plays and obvious defeats.
This is the Heavy's deadpan kill line from Team Fortress 2, delivered in his deep Russian-accented voice over about two seconds. He states the kill as a plain fact, then adds not big surprise with flat, almost bored resignation. The contrast between the brutal result and the calm delivery is what makes it funny. There is no music or extra noise, just the clear vocal take landing like a punchline. It reads instantly as mock sympathy, perfect for a moment where failure was completely predictable.